One Quick Question: Race Back to the Moon

The first crewed mission to land on the moon was U.S. Apollo 11 in 1969, with Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin. At the time, the U.S. was in an arms-race-turned-space-race with the Soviet Union. Over the next three years, the U.S. landed 10 more astronauts in five different missions on the moon before the Apollo program ended in 1972. To date, the U.S. is the only country to put humans on the moon. 

Since then, more than 10 countries across the globe have completed uncrewed lunar landings, but renewed interest in crewed lunar missions has peaked in recent years. China’s space program is making quick progress and recently announced plans to put two astronauts on the moon by 2030, a timeline scientists and astronauts have confirmed as credible. China has also mentioned jointly developing a lunar base with Russia.

This stirred up some competitive energy at NASA, and the U.S. is said to be facing China in a race back to the moon by the end of this decade. Currently, the U.S. Artemis III program aims to land a crewed mission on the moon near its south polar region in 2027. The south polar region is the most likely area volatiles like water could be found, which may provide valuable resources like carbon, nitrogen and phosphorous to aid future human exploration. 

However, the SpaceX Starship, that would get the U.S. crew to the moon and back, has faced several critical delays. Transportation Secretary and Acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy announced this week that, given the way SpaceX is lagging behind schedule, he may open up SpaceX’s $2.9 billion contract and let others compete for the lunar lander position.  

When it comes to space, WWU Professor of Geology Melissa Rice is our resident expert. She teaches planetary science in the Geology and Physics & Astronomy departments, and her research focuses on the geology of Mars. She and her students help to operate Mastcam-Z cameras on NASA’s Mars2020 Perseverance rover mission.

So we asked Rice: Is the U.S. really in a race with China to put humans back on the moon? And how’s it looking so far?

RICE: From the perspective of a planetary scientist, I think about the advantage that human explorers have over robotic landers, rovers and orbiters. The amount of science that a human can do on the moon is so much more efficient and in-depth than our robot explorers. 

Getting humans to the south polar regions of the moon, which is where NASA’s Artemis program is targeting, will really open doors to unprecedented areas of science. Humans will be able to collect samples and return them to Earth for detailed lab study. We haven't had new lunar samples in hand since the Apollo programs. 

Getting samples from new parts of the moon will allow us to fill in some of the big holes in our understanding of the moon’s history and evolution. Specifically through NASA’s Artemis program, we hope to answer questions about whether there are volatiles present, like water ice, in some of these really dark, very cold regions of the moon’s south pole. 

In the meantime, China’s space exploration program has really ramped up, not just with their human explorers to the moon, but with their robotic explorers to Mars and to other parts of the solar system. China is really positioning itself to be a world-class space agency. 

In response to that, the United States and NASA feel we are entering a new space race. We’re feeling the pressure, for sure, from the huge acceleration in China’s space program.

NASA’s program really depends now on the SpaceX Starship. It hasn’t yet demonstrated its ability to refuel in space and get to the moon on the timeline that NASA proposed. Their target for a 2027 landing is seeming more and more ambitious, given what’s required to get the new SpaceX rocket off the ground. 

China also has a really ambitious Mars program and has had high-profile successes with their Mars Rover. And now, China is preparing for Tianwen-3, which is their sample-return mission. That program will land on Mars and collect soil samples, both with a drill and loose rock fragments grabbed from the surface. 

NASA has planned since the Perseverance Rover’s conception to collect rock samples and bring them back to the Earth. However, in the president’s FY 26 budget, all funding for Mars sample return has been zeroed out. 

China is planning to launch their Tianwen-3 Mars sample-return mission in 2028, and there’s a very good chance that they’re on track to do so. So that’s another area where perhaps we’re in a race with China. They might bring samples of Mars back to Earth before the U.S. does.

But with NASA missions being canceled in the Trump administration budget, it makes it very unclear whether we’re actually in a race if we’re not putting in a similar kind of investment and pursuing these missions on similar timelines. 

To learn more about geology at WWU, visit the Geology Department website. 

Allie Spikes covers the WWU Graduate School and Fairhaven College of Interdisciplinary Studies for University Communications. Reach out to her with story ideas at spikesa@wwu.edu.