One quick question: Is the Pacific Northwest better prepared for The Big One since the 2001 Nisqually quake?

On February 28, 2001, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake jolted the Puget Sound region. In less than a minute, roads cracked, buildings tumbled, and damages soared into the billions. According to the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates an 85% chance of another deep quake of 6.5 or higher in the next 50 years. The Nisqually earthquake shook Pacific Northwesterners in more ways than one, awakening a new era of interest in earthquake preparedness.  

Western Today checked in with Associate Professor and Chair of the Environmental Studies Department, Rebekah Paci-Green, whose research includes disaster risk reduction and the safety of school buildings following earthquakes, to learn about the progress Washington state has made and what still needs to be done. Paci-Green led the drafting of “Cascadia Rising,” a 180+-page report that served as the foundation for a multi-state  functional exercise. The exercise allowed agencies and organizations across several states to practice responding together to a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in the Cascadia Subduction Zone.  

Q: How has the Pacific Northwest’s earthquake preparedness changed in response to the 2001 Nisqually quake?

A: For about 30 seconds in 2001, the Nisqually earthquake rattled Western Washington. It wasn’t a particularly big earthquake compared to an anticipated Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, but according to the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, it still caused an estimated $305 million in insured losses and $2 billion in total damages. More than 1,000 unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings — including historic buildings in Seattle’s Pioneer Square — were seriously damaged. 

Reducing the impacts of earthquakes requires investing well before the faults rupture, and in that regard, the region is making progress.   

Starting in 1991, Washington state began upgrading fragile bridges. Working with emergency management and freight organizations, the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) has retrofitted more than 900 bridges, focusing on essential state highways in the populous Puget Sound. In 2016, Seattle residents approved a levy to help fund retrofitting 16 vulnerable bridges. Recent engineering studies now estimate that most bridges along the I-5 corridor will remain functional after an earthquake — welcome news for residents of the region, including those of us in Bellingham, where we depend on I-5 for restocking our stores!   

In just the last couple of years, Washington state has prioritized identifying potentially dangerous URM buildings. A multi-agency URM Workgroup was formed and is developing an app for volunteers or city staff to identify dangerous masonry buildings. In the past, these assessments were expensive and time-consuming, requiring highly trained engineers and contractors to visit each building directly. With the new app, non-technical volunteers will be able to document characteristics and photos of masonry buildings in their communities. Technical specialists will rapidly review the field data and score buildings. Expect this tool to roll out soon. It will be a game-changer for smaller local governments.

Encouraging private owners to retrofit these dangerous unreinforced masonry buildings has proven more challenging. For over a decade, Seattle has studied the issue. While the city has not yet made retrofitting these buildings mandatory, it has recently established a system for reviewing and approving building upgrades. More importantly, the city has applied for federal funding to support low-income owners and is exploring other strategies to incentivize retrofitting. The state is looking at tax incentives. 

Meanwhile, some buildings in Seattle and elsewhere are being strengthened even without a mandate — for example, state funding enabled WWU to strengthen Carver Gym in 2017.  

One of the most exciting advancements has been the introduction of ShakeAlert, an early warning system operational from California to Washington. ShakeAlert can provide a few seconds to half a minute warning before violent shaking hits the Puget Sound region. That may not sound like a lot of time, but it is enough for smartphones to alert individuals to take cover and for critical infrastructure to enter “earthquake mode.” Fire station doors can be opened, so the engines don’t get stuck behind jammed doors just when we need them most. Elevators and trains can be safely stopped. Hospitals and industrial sites where continuous electricity is essential for safety can start generators.   

A lot more needs to happen. Bridges on the Olympic Peninsula and coast still need strengthening. Owners of homes built before the 1970s need to bolt their homes to their foundations. Cities outside Seattle need to establish assessments of unreinforced masonry buildings and make retrofit plans.  

We need to continue to educate the public about actions they can take to reduce their earthquake risk and be prepared. While progress is slow and far from finished, Washington is better prepared today and has addressed some of its most critical seismic risks over the last 25 years. 

Jennifer Nerad covers Western’s College of the Environment and College of Business and Economics for the Office of University Communications. Have a great story idea? Reach out to her at neradj@wwu.edu.